203.432.3715

John M. Musser Professor of Economics

Ray C. Fair is the John M. Musser Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance. He teaches Macroeconomic Theory and Econometrics, and his research is in the area of macroeconomic models.

Fellowships
Fellow, International Center for Finance at Yale, 2000-
Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society, 1977

Books
Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Stanford University Press, 2002

Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994

Selected Articles
"Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," NBER Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, February, 2010

"Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Journal of Politics, April, 2009

"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, 55-72, January, 2009

"Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, 1424-1437, November, 2008

"Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4, No. 1, Article 1, 2008

Working Papers
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill"

"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation"

"Has Macro Progressed?"

"Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability"

Education
PhD Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1968
BA Fresno State College, 1964